With the first mass produced cars set to make their way into the hands of consumers later this year, predictions and speculation about how they will be received and what the next few years has in store for hybrid and electric vehicles is all over the place. Being the most vital element, as well as what many call the heart of battery-powered vehicle, the lithium-ion battery and it’s development sits at the center of this guessing game. Its price, performance and availability will have a significant effect on the future of hybrid and electric vehicles, which is why a recent report by Deutsche Bank regarding the state of lithium-ion batteries is all the more interesting.
Recent discussions reinforce conviction regarding EV growth trajectory
“Based on recent discussions with Automakers, Battery Suppliers, and EV infrastructure co’s, we continue to believe that the market underestimates the potential for growth in this segment… particularly in markets that are supported by EV friendly gov’t policies and independent infrastructure co’s focused on growing the penetration of such vehicles. Additionally, we’ve noted evidence of steeperthan-expected battery price declines which will likely bolster the consumer valueproposition and potentially lead to stronger demand than we originally envisioned.” -Deutsche Bank Report-
The firm notes the average lithium-ion cell price in 2009 has been $650 per kwh, but claims automakers are already seeing bids for $450 per kwh from battery companies for delivery contracts in the 2011/2012 timeframe. Furthermore, they predict an additional 25% decline in price over the next 5 years and a 50% decline over the next 10 years along with a doubling of performance over the next 7 years. If these numbers were to hold true, this would obviously bode very well for manufacturers and owners of hybrid and electric vehicles alike.
Category: Battery News